The Iranian regime is a doomsday death cult that seeks to destroy America, Israel, and the rest of the West. It's expansionist as it seeks to take over other countries and export its revolution, and it prioritizes ideology over survival. It's pragmatic in pursuing its goals, but those goals are the fulfillment of its fanatical religious ideology. Because of that nobody in the world can afford to let Iran get any form of WMD.
Iran's conclusion from the 12 day war is that it needs to invest more in protecting its nuclear program, switch from sneaking to the bomb to sprinting towards it, and created deterrence. It increased its investments in its proxies and in building up its ballistic missile arsenal with the goal of being able to overwhelm missile defenses with sheer quantity. Therefor there's a deadline of having to take action before Iran has enough missiles and launchers to overwhelm missile defenses, and according to secretary of state Rubio, that deadline was between 1 to 1.5 years from now.
However, there's also a political deadline, which is the US midterm election. If the Republicans lose the midterms the Trump loses the support of Congress and won't be able to act as he pleases, so he'd want to take action before the midterms. Also, a war would almost definitely hurt the incumbents, so he'd want to wrap it all up long enough before the midterms for the dust to settle so he can show the voters a US victory and an economic recovery from the damages of the war. That would mean that he needs to start the war as soon as possible, but he'd want it to also be done as quickly as possible. Apparently, he wanted to do it sooner, but Netanyahu convinced him to spend more time on preparations in order to do it better.
Next is the issue of legitimacy. Trump was obviously focusing on China and the Americas, so the mass protests in Iran caught him out of position. But once they erupted and revealed themselves to be as serious as they were, that created the legitimacy he needed to take action there, and a lack of action would have been bad for him as it would have portrayed him as unreliable or weak.
So he had a need, which is not to repeat the mistake that allowed North Korea to get nukes. He had the legitimacy of the protests, and he has a deadline where he needs to get it done ASAP.
All of that on its own would be enough reason to do this now, but then there's also the issue of China. China is the main geopolitical rival of America, and the greatest threat to America's global hegemony. China and Iran are allies, and China is heavily dependent on imports for its oil. Venezuala and Iran together supply about 20% of China's oil, and they sell it well below market price, which allows China to then export the oil that it imports at a profit. By forcing those two countries to align with the US, the US has control over China's energy, which means that China's energy costs will increase, which reduces its competitive advantage against the US and gives the US leverage over China.
Additionally, these actions also expose the inferiority of Chinese and Russian military tech, as both were the supplier of Venezuela and Iran. And it proves the US's willingness to engage in large scale military conflict. It serves to deter China from invading Taiwan, as on the one hand China would lose much of its oil supply, and because military such an invasion now appears much less likely to succeed. China does have a stockpile of oil for 6 months, but apparently they were planning to invade in a few years, so by the time they're ready that stockpile might not be relevant anymore.
Russia for its part loses a supplier of drones for its war with Ukraine. It does gain leverage over China with the ability to jack up the price of its oil now that China will be more dependent. Another possibility is that it will become much more worthwhile, and perhaps less risky, for China to invade Russia for the purpose of taking over the oil-rich areas in eastern Russia.
The big loser is Ukraine, since Russia will have more money with which to finance the war.
As for what happens with Iran following the war, there are multiple possible scenarios. It could be that the US and Israel keep bombing Iran until there's a leadership there that's willing to surrender and cooperate with the US. Or the government and military could fragment into warring factions. Or there could be land invasions that grab territory, combined with uprisings, resulting in the country being partitioned. Or it could be that the US and Israel achieve all of their official goals to the point where they completely eliminate the nuclear program, ballistic missile program, drone program, navy, and airforce, have severely damaged the regime and its internal repression apparatus, and still the regime refuses to surrender, collapse, or fragment in any way. In that case the US and Israel will say "job done" and go home, and the regime will declare victory because it survived. But what happens next?
They still have the same problems as before the war: a water crisis, an energy crisis, a food crisis, high inflation, public humiliation and loss of legitimacy, and sanctions. They also have new problems: likely a naval blockade that means that they can't export oil anymore, thus no more income for the regime, as well as becoming a regional pariah now that they have no ability to project power outwards and after attacking all of their neighbors. They won't be able to pay their soldiers a wage that's worth anything. The most likely result is that within weeks to months after the war ends they will face popular uprisings, including armed uprisings and soldiers either going AWOL or joining the rebels. This time the power disparity between the regime forces and the rebels will be much smaller, and there's a near-guarantee that other countries in the region will back the rebels with arms supplies and air strikes. There's also the possibility of land invasions. Azerbaijan and the Kurdish Autonomous Region could invade to claim Azeri and Kurdish areas in the north-west. Iraq could invade to claim Arab areas in the south-west. Afghanistan could invade to claim Baluchi and Afghan regions in the east.
In other words, no matter what happens from this point onwards in the war, Iran is now in deep trouble. The best bet for Iran would a quick transition to a pro-Western government that will maintain a unified military and receive the protection of America in order to satisfy the population and deter external aggression. This would also be the optimal outcome for the US and Israel, as it would allow them to gain a powerful ally in the region.
(images generated by ChatGPT)
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