Al-Julani's Plan

As has been published, Al-Julani is the founder of Hiat Tahrir Al-Shams, which means something like "The Front for the Liberation of the Levant". It's a radical Islamist offshoot of Al-Qaeda and ISIS that aims to conquer Syria, Lebanon, Jordan, and Israel. Their leadership is putting on a moderate front, but that's all it is, a front. However, putting on this friendly face indicates that their leader is intelligent, crafty, and wise, and has strategic vision.

The following is my assumption as to what his plan is.

Stage 1

Consolidate power and territorial control. Build up institutions. Gain international recognition and legitimacy.

Stage 2

Draw in international investments and build up the economy and military.

Stage 3

Destabilize the neighbors by supporting and arming radical groups. Lebanon is divided with the largest group being Christians and Shiites and Sunnis being about equal with around 28% each, and the Shiites are still well-armed and organized, so the main target will most likely be Jordan, which is ruled by a tiny and unpopular minority, with almost the entire country being Sunni. It should be relatively easy to topple the regime and place a puppet on the throne.

Stage 4

Destabilize Israel by smuggling weapons through the border. Israel's longest border is the one it shares with Jordan.

Stage 5

Once Israel falls into chaos and is sufficiently vulnerable, invade from all sides.

Stage 6

Once Israel has fallen and its population has been ethnically cleansed, perform "reunification" with Jordan, Lebanon, and Israel.

Stage 7

Formally announce that Syria is the Islamic caliphate and that its leader is the Caliph, but this time from the position of being an internationally-recognized legitimate state.

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