Why the Flowers?

 

AI rendering of Syria. Source: https://designer.microsoft.com

A few days ago there was a demonstration in the Syrian village of Maariya against Israel's presence in southern Syria, which resulted in one Syrian being wounded by the IDF. This incident only serves to highlight a greater question: Why is it the first? Why was there no noticeable opposition to the Israeli incursion into Syrian territory until now?

Ma'rbah and Hader. Source: https://earth.google.com

To the contrary, Druze communities near the border declared their desire to be annexed by Israel, calling Israel the lesser of two evils. In other cases the communities in the demilitarized zone and even in Syria proper cooperated with the IDF's demand to hand over weapons, and there have been videos showing relaxed and amicable interactions between IDF troops and Syrian residents in Syrian villages.

One reason is Israel's conduct throughout the Syrian civil war. Israel's approach was to officially stay out of it while securing its vital security interests and being a good neighbor. It struck against Iranian and Hizballah targets, and occasionally against regime targets as well, but for the most part it stayed out of it. It was about preventing Syria, Iran, and Hizballah from threatening Israel from the north, not about weakening or toppling the regime. Those who opposed the regime would find those actions convenient, even understandable.

Another aspect was Israel's policy regarding what was termed "leaking of fire". If any ordnance fell in Israeli territory, even if only by accident, Israel would destroy its source. This led to all factions being cautious about firing near Israel's borders, resulting in the area near the border becoming something of a safe zone without Israel having to send forces to occupy the area across the border.

The third aspect is humanitarian aid. Throughout the civil war Israel has provide humanitarian aid to the Syrian population without discrimination, including bringing sick and wounded Syrians into Israel for free medical treatment. There was a famous case when Israeli Druze rioted and attempted to attack a bus carrying wounded rebels because those rebels were connected with attacks on Druze communities in Syria, but Israel provided medical treatment regardless.

All of the above, and perhaps also secret aid to rebel groups in Syria, helped build goodwill and dispel the image of Israel as a cruel imperial colonizer which is pushed by Jew-haters around the region and the world. At the same time, Israel also has another image, not only as a kind neighbor, but as a powerful force that devastates those who dare to make an enemy out of it.

Over the past 14 months Israel has turned Gaza into a pile of rubble, and its wealthiest populations are now living in flooded tents and standing in line to pay extortionist prices for basic necessities. At the same time Hizballah has all but surrendered, and Shiite villages throughout southern Lebanon lie in ruins. The leadership that both organizations had before the war has been virtually wiped out in jaw-dropping assassinations, and the regime in Iran is in a panic after Israel dismantled its entire axis and wiped out its air defenses.

At the same time that Israel was amassing all of these military and geopolitical victories, which also led to Assad's collapse and the rebel victory in Syria, Israel has been treating civilian populations with unprecedented respect in world history, showing again that Israel has honor and kindness. Israel has been taking extraordinary steps that go far above and beyond the requirements of the Geneva conventions, colloquially termed as the rules of war, to prevent civilian casualties and to attempt to only hit enemy combatants, weapons, and facilities.

The result of all of this is that there is a very strong incentive to not make yourself into an enemy of Israel, and once you give up on the idea of avoiding conflict with Israel, you then have an incentive to be friendly towards it, as there are benefits to having a good relationship.

Why the Demonstration?

Given all of that, there is then the question of why these demonstrations took place now. There are three factors in play, and all are simultaneously true.

Islam

In the Islamic view the entire world is required to submit to Allah (the literal meaning of the word Islam). It is the duty of the Muslim to make it happen, whether by open war, subterfuge, or convincing people to willingly convert. All means are legitimate, and the only reason to choose one or the other depends on what is the most convenient and effective at the moment. The world is divided between heretical lands which the Muslims must conquer, the realm of war, and lands that have already been subjugated, the realm of Islam.

In Muslim thinking all other religions expired at the moment Islam was introduced, and are supposed to fade away. This is especially true of Judaism and Christianity. Islam is supposed to rise and take over the world, forcing non-Muslims to choose between death and Islam, or in some cases like Jews and Christians, between death, oppression, and Islam.

Therefor the reality in which Judaism is resurgent and that the Jews liberate the ancient Jewish homeland from Islam is an affront to their religious world-view, to the point of even disproving their religious beliefs, and they must destroy it in order to protect their pride and their theology. There have been other territories that they lost, such as Spain, Sicily, and parts of Eastern Europe, but this is more offensive to them, both because it's Jews, and because it's in the middle of their empire.

Thus the Muslim fundamentalist would oppose Israel's very existence on ideological grounds, let alone opposing an Israeli incursion into Syria.

Nationalism

Syria had just been liberated from the horrible Assad regime, and the people hadn't finished celebrating, let alone woken up to the new reality that the Al-Julani regime will bring, when suddenly a neighboring country strolls in like the they own the place. Any patriot in any country would of course find himself displeased with the situation, so it's not surprising at all if some demonstrations or riots were to break out in such occupied villages.

Blue: Israeli Golan Heights. Purple: Israeli Gains. Green: Syria. Source: https://syria.liveuamap.com/

Strategy

Although on one level it's incredibly stupid to oppose Israel at precisely the moment when Syria is the weakest its ever been, at precisely the moment when Israel is crushing its enemies like never before with minimal losses, and right as the most pro-Israel US administration is about to enter office, on another level it's a sound an intelligent strategy.

As long as the populations in southern Syria appear to be welcoming Israel with open arms, Israel's presence could be legitimized and become established and accepted by the international community. Even if there is international outrage, it would be little more than a formality.

However, if the population were to protest, and better yet, if the protests turn violent and local civilians are injured by Israeli occupiers, that would provide the legitimacy, PR ammunition, and diplomatic push to put serious pressure on Israel to withdraw from Syria. It would be precisely what Al-Julani needs as party of his effort to force Israel out through diplomatic means, which is his stated policy. Was it planned and organized by him? I doubt it, but it's not a surprise that such an incident would eventually occur naturally, and it certainly serves his agenda.