Why Not Ally With Russia?

On the face of it, an alliance between HTS and Russia would make a lot of sense. Russia’s alliance with Syria was a cold business transaction. Syria needed outside support to survive against the various rebel groups, and Russia wanted to expand its influence, regain its position as a global superpower, and to have ports and bases in the eastern Mediterranean. Now that Syria has fallen, Russia has no reason to maintain the deal it had with it, so it should be open to allying with the rebels.

At the same time, the rebels have Turkey as their patron. They might not always see eye to eye with Turkey, as each has its own ambitions, and Turkey and Russia are geopolitical rivals. It makes sense for the rebels to also ally with Russia as a way of keeping Turkey in check. If Turkey doesn’t provide enough support, or if it makes unreasonable demands, they can cozy up to Russia. If that doesn’t motivate Turkey to be more accommodating then they can switch their primary patronage to Russia until Turkey repents. It’s a lot like how modern-day hoes will keep a few guys on the side, stringing them along while friendzoning them, as a hedge against their boyfriend and as a way of keeping him in line.

So why doesn’t Al-Jolani do it? Why is he instead having Russia withdraw from Syria?

Part of the reason could be public sentiment. For approximately a decade Russia has helped Syria butcher its own people, and has been an accomplice to all the atrocities of the Assad regime, including those that were newly revealed with the liberation of the prisons, as well as those we already knew about such as the use of chemical weapons and the indiscriminate bombing of neighborhoods. Given such, an alliance with Russia would undermine the legitimacy of Al-Jolani’s rule and the HTS.

A more practical reason is that Russia is something of an international pariah. An alliance with it would cause the West to continue to treat him and his organizations as terrorists, which would make it difficult to consolidate power and give legitimacy to Israel to continue to operate in Syria unrestricted and take southern Syria in under its protection and control. It would lead to increased Western support for Kurdish autonomy, and eventually might lead to a bombing campaign against HTS, similar to what happened to ISIS. It’s a losing strategy. Al-Jolani has proven himself to be an intelligent and sophisticated Jihadi. Since it’s a losing strategy, then it’s not his strategy. It’s that simple.